Panel Presentation | Society of Technical Analysts - 8th January 2013 Outlook & Forecasts for 2013 | Stock Indices-Commodities-Equities

INTRODUCTION:

The S&P 500 is used as the international benchmark/proxy for global stock indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some, especially those of Asia, remain incomplete. In order to understand the logic of the 2013 trends and price-forecasts, it is necessary to find a common denominator that not only conforms to the overall pattern progression for each index as defined by the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), but synchronises the up and down swings accordingly. This study identifies shared commonalities taking a few examples from a larger resource then plotting the most probable path market price action will follow during the next year and beyond.

 

HIGHLIGHTS:

 

The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09.

 

This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs.

 

Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume.

 

Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months.

 

Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs.